Unemployment and an Aging Population

If you look at the unemployment by age graph I posted yesterday you'll see a trend. The younger you are the higher your unemployment rate. But, I wondered, was this what was really happening? Was it possible people were dropping out of the workforce? I looked at two age groups in particular: 45-54 and 55 and older and their respective populations and employment to population ratio.

The 45-54 graph paints a pretty obvious picture of what we might expect to see. After the recession the employment ratio drops significantly. Fewer people in this prime working group have jobs. The 55 and older is a little more tricky. They naturally have a much lower employment ratio since many are post retirement.

Still, it's interesting to see the aging demographics as the 45-54 population growth peaks in about late 2009 and that starts dropping a little. The 55 and older demographic is steadily growing. But looking at these two graphs doesn't tell you whether the unemployment rate is only dropping because people are dropping out of the workforce. To see that you'd want to compare the employment to population ratio with the unemployment rate.

Again it's expected that the employment to population ratio would take a dip in 2009 and the unemployment rate climb significantly. But we can see in late 2011 as the unemployment rate is dropping that the employment to population ratio is staying pretty steady. Let's zoom in...

Unemployment going gradually down and the employment to population rising a bit in December 2011 and January 2012. That would seem to dispel the idea of people dropping out of the labor force. In fact given the climb in the ratio it would seem to imply the opposite, that more people are getting back into the workforce.

Why don't the two follow each other in an obvious way? In October 2010 there's a significant drop in the employment to population ratio but the unemployment rate stays mostly flat. I'm guessing that's because a lot of people dropped out of the workforce here, gave up, stopped looking for jobs, etc. So the unemployment rate did not go up significantly (though did bump up a little).

None of these graphs will really be encouraging though until we can see an obvious month over month trend. Overall unemployment peaked for most age groups around late 2010. But it didn't start immediately getting better after that. Those 55 and older have fared significantly better than their younger colleagues but that doesn't mean age discrimination isn't still out there. Older works might be having a problem that they are part of a very large and growing population demographic so while they are more employable than younger people with better experience they also have to compete with many other folks their age who also have great experience. What do you think, do these graphs capture a slightly improving job market or is there more at play here?

Young People & Job Hunting

There's were a couple of interesting posts up this weekend within a day of each other from two folks in their 20s offering advice for other, fellow young job seekers.

First there's 4 Ways to Defeat Job Search Desperation at the Daily Muse by Elise Marraro. Then over at 20s Finances Mrs. 20's writes 6 Tips for Young Job Applicants.

Both suggest expanding your search to more jobs or areas and both suggest not getting down on yourself if you've been searching for a while. For there is a slight difference in tone where Marrarro suggests you be "realistic" but "don't settle" as well as warns you to "use your time wisely". Mrs. 20's suggests applying for temporary jobs, moving to where you want the job,and  getting used to the idea you won't get your dream job.

I think Mrs. 20's tips are more likely to land someone a job. Not settling is such an arbitrary frame of mind anyways. Marraro talks about how one of the places she went to she realized would be "soul crushing". I think perhaps young college grads place too much emphasis on lofty goals of the organizations they want to work for. It's okay to work somewhere "soul crushing" for a few years until you get some experience under your belt. The idea that you are too good morally or otherwise for the companies you are checking out is not going to help you succeed in interviews or get a job. Of course if your primary goal is to change the world and you can live at your parents' house for the next 15 years than by all means be picky. But if you want a job and to gain some experience don't be afraid to give the corporate monoliths a shot: they may be less soul crushing than you thought they were with good employees and good learning experiences for you as a young professional.

(Photo via Jans Canon)

Wrapping up the latest economic data

There's a lot of jobs, unemployment and economic data that gets released daily and weekly. Here's a quick look at some bits that interested me.

Mass layoffs included 145,648 Americans laid off in December 2011. An average of about 100 people laid off in each case. The vast majority of layoffs in 2011 affected temporary workers but food service workers and school transportation were also heavily hit.

Wages and salaries increased by 1.6% in the private sector in the year 2011. This compares to a 1.8% increase in 2010. In the public sector the wage increase was also 1.8% in 2010 but only 1.3% in 2011.

Number of employed persons is predicted to increase by 14.3% between 2010 and 2020. Industries with the fastest predicted increase are healthcare and construction. This indicates an average yearly employment increase of 0.7% compared to 1.3% in the previous decade. And another interesting fact, the baby boom generation will all be 55 and older by 2020. Manufacturing and federal government employment are predicted to take the biggest hits in employment.

Initial unemployment claims for the week ending in January 28th were 367,000. That's down 12,000 from the week before.

Productivity was up 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2011. That's a combination of an increase in hours worked as well as output per individual.

Unemployment rate drops to 8.3% at the end of January 2012 with (nonfarm) payroll employment increasing by 243,000 persons in January. Long term unemployed stayed mostly flat. People working part time who want full time employment but are unable to find it also remained mostly the same. Professional services, accounting, engineering, food services, retail and health care all had strong gains in employment.

Average hourly wage at the end of January 2012 was about $19.62, approximately a 1.5% increase from the year before. Average weekly earnings were $663.


(1) Mass Layoffs Summary
(2) Employment Cost Index
(3) Employment Predictions 2010-2020 Summary
(4) Initial unemployment claims
(5) Productivity
(6) Employment Situation
(7) Average hourly and weekly earnings

Network with me

The conventional wisdom is that to get a job, or to get a better job, is to network. It's really the magical word around job and career advice these last couple years. I'll be honest, it's not something I'm great at. I don't run into too many people outside my company and it is hard to maintain friendships, especially of the networking kind, without feeling like a fraud.

So maybe it would be a little hypocritical for me to criticize other people's attempts. But here I go anyways. I've occasionally met people working on outside projects. Here's what they could do to get me to help them get a job:

1. Ask me. That's right the first mistake people make is not asking me. You want to work where I work? Do I know someone who you know could get you a job? I see them sort of itching to get it out of me. But they don't know the easiest way. Please. If you want me to do you a favor than ask me to do you a favor. I'm not going to go out of my way to spontaneously help you. I'm a little conceited. I like to be asked.
2. Show me. If I don't know what kind of work you do I can't recommend you to anyone. Show me that you are awesome, or that you fit a role. I'm not talking some crazy recruiter speak here. You don't have to prove that you fill the need that I didn't even know I had. Just show me you do good work. That you're a decent person who plays well with others.
3. Don't embarrass me. Some of the few times I've had people asking me for a job, they're looking for a backup plan. They want me to get them something in the meantime even though I know they're applying to grad school in another six months or really would rather move back home. I can't do that. I'm not going to put my reputation on the line to get you something that is temporary. Also even if your work is great but you're always 15 minutes late to coffee with me or dress horribly or have some sort of aversion to hard work I'm also not going to give you a shot.

What do you think? Are these what you've seen with others networking and what are your own beefs?

(Photo from Mark Geo)

What the Unemployment Numbers Mean for You

Optimism seems to be flowing rather freely based on the unemployment numbers just released from the BLS. I think after so many months of bad news and such a tough economy it's natural to look at what seems to be a  positive report and take it to be so. And it is a sign that employment (at least for now) is looking better. More Americans have jobs now than they did a year ago.

About 1.5 million more Americans have jobs than did a year ago. Still, at a 8.5% unemployment rate there are over 13 million people still classified as being unemployed. And probably many more who are underemployed or have simply given up looking.

The scary thing to me as that while the unemployment rate has gone down nearly a whole percentage point in the last year the ratio of those employed to the population has remained basically flat.

As you can see the percentage of the population employed has barely fluctuated between 58.2 and 58.5%. So what does this mean? Likely many more people are dropping out of the population considered eligible for employment. That the gains we're making in jobs are small compared to how many people are discouraged and giving up on trying or how many people are accepting early retirement.

Still, I don't tend to disagree with the optimists. I think a dropping unemployment rate is a good thing. But it probably means if you're on the ground level looking for a job you're not going to see much of a change. If you are employed and overworked you probably aren't going to see your employers hiring much. But they might start talking about it and planning for it. And 2012 will probably be a better year for jobs than 2011.